Weekly Dark Pool Report — July 27-31 2026

Market data from the week of July 27–31, 2026. Trade setups for July 27-31 2026.

Market Overview

Week in Review: Jul 20–24

Crude ran the tape. Houthi militants claimed attacks on two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea mid-week, and Brent crossed $100/bbl for the first time since May. WTI futures jumped more than 5% Thursday to above $91. USO closed the week +10.27% — the largest move on our board by a wide margin.

Then Thursday happened. Alphabet beat expectations and fell ~7% anyway. Tesla missed on profit as AI spending climbed and dropped ~14%. The S&P 500 gave up 1.21% to 7,408.30 in that single session, and the VIX printed an intraday 20.31 after closing Wednesday at a weekly low of 16.64. It settled the week at 18.58 — net flat, all the drama compressed into one day.

Rates did not cooperate. The 10Y climbed every session, 4.598% Monday to 4.679% Friday (+13.8 bp), its highest level of the year. The fuel: initial jobless claims fell to 187,000, a 57-year low, from 209,000 prior. The four-week average dropped to 207,500, so that print wasn’t noise.

Index closes: SPY 738.93 (−0.59%), QQQ 684.23 (−1.60%), IWM 291.17 (−0.98%).

The damage was narrower than headlines implied. 8 of 11 sectors closed higher. Energy led at +3.36%, followed by Utilities +2.48% and Industrials +1.81%. The three decliners were Consumer Discretionary (−5.22%), Communication Services (−3.93%) and Consumer Staples (−1.24%) — and the first two took nearly all of it Thursday, the ETFs holding Tesla and Alphabet respectively. Broad Technology finished +0.17%. XLF ended +0.09%. Read that again: QQQ dropped 1.60% while the tech sector ETF was flat. This was a two-stock event, not a sector rotation.

Scorecard: 19 Targets Hit

Seven tickers reached at least one profit target for a total of 19 targets hit. Five Above levels triggered, four Below levels triggered, four never activated.

The standouts:

• XOM — Above $151.00 triggered, ran to $158.71 for +5.11%, tagging T3

• INTC — Above $100.00 triggered, high of $106.85, +6.85% through T1

• FCX — Above $60.00 triggered, high of $65.43, +9.05% through T3

• GOOGL — Below $340.00 triggered, low of $314.90, −7.38%, full run to T5 (5 of 5)

• TSLA — Below $374.00 triggered, low of $306.51, −18.05%, all four downside targets

• QQQ — Above $702.50 triggered, high of $710.05, T2

Both sides of the book paid.

Dark Pool Flow

$19.1B crossed the broad-market ETF complex — SPY, QQQ, IWM, VOO, IVV — across 695 total prints logged for the week. SPY alone accounted for $9.88B on 20 prints.

In individual names, NVDA led at $4.5B (21.64M shares, 26 prints) with AAPL right behind at $4.4B (13.64M shares, 15 prints).

Sector ETFs saw $2.7B total, and XLF led at $1.47B — 26.21M shares across 15 prints, the most print activity of any sector fund. Worth noting given XLF’s flat weekly close.

Looking Ahead: Jul 27–31

FOMC, Tuesday and Wednesday (Jul 28–29). No decision came last week, which is why every Friday wrap read like a waiting room. Markets are assigning roughly 34% odds to a hike, up materially on the 187K claims print, inflation at 3.7%, and Brent above $100.

Thirteen tickers on the board: SPY, QQQ, IWM, XLF, AAPL, AMZN, XOM, TSLA, JPM, INTC, EWY, HOOD, UNH. Six are new this week — XLF, AMZN, JPM, EWY, HOOD and UNH. Two of those (XLF, JPM) sit in the sector that just absorbed the heaviest dark pool flow of the week, and JPM itself logged $1.86B in prints.

Levels are set. Let the tape come to you.

*Data sourced from MobyTick.*

Scorecard — Last Week’s Callout Performance

Ticker	Above	Below	High	Low	Close	Triggered	Targets Hit	Move From Trigger
SPY	$751.00	$740.00	$750.02	$735.21	$738.93	Below	0 of 6	$740.00 → $735.21 (−0.65%)
QQQ	$702.50	$686.00	$710.05	$682.48	$684.23	Above	2 of 7 → T2 ($710.00)	$702.50 → $710.05 (+1.07%)
IWM	$298.00	$290.00	$296.75	$290.17	$291.17	Not triggered	Not triggered	—
NVDA	$215.00	$197.50	$214.39	$202.28	$206.84	Not triggered	Not triggered	—
XOM	$151.00	$144.50	$158.71	$146.23	$156.94	Above	3 of 7 → T3 ($157.50)	$151.00 → $158.71 (+5.11%)
INTC	$100.00	$89.50	$106.85	$91.58	$92.32	Above	1 of 7 → T1 ($105.00)	$100.00 → $106.85 (+6.85%)
AAPL	$335.00	$313.00	$334.37	$319.35	$333.02	Not triggered	Not triggered	—
GOOGL	$360.00	$340.00	$359.68	$314.90	$319.74	Below	5 of 5 → T5 ($320.00)	$340.00 → $314.90 (−7.38%)
TSLA	$390.00	$374.00	$386.61	$306.51	$313.03	Below	4 of 4 → T4 ($340.00)	$374.00 → $306.51 (−18.05%)
SPCX	$140.00	$122.00	$129.88	$110.85	$115.07	Below	1 of 6 → T1 ($120.00)	$122.00 → $110.85 (−9.14%)
ACN	$147.50	$135.00	$147.53	$135.96	$146.99	Above	0 of 5	$147.50 → $147.53 (+0.02%)
FCX	$60.00	$56.00	$65.43	$58.52	$62.60	Above	3 of 6 → T3 ($65.00)	$60.00 → $65.43 (+9.05%)
PFE	$26.00	$24.00	$25.19	$24.51	$24.54	Not triggered	Not triggered	—

Tally: Above triggered: 5 · Below triggered: 4 · Not triggered: 4

Targets: Tickers reaching ≥1 target: 7 · Total profit targets hit: 19

New tickers this week (no prior callout): XLF, AMZN, JPM, EWY, HOOD, UNH

*Data sourced from MobyTick.*

Bullish Setups — Above Trigger (July 27-31 2026)

Ticker	Above	T1	T2	T3	T4	T5	T6
SPY	$750.00	$755.00	$757.00	$760.00	$765.00	$760.00	$770.00
QQQ	$695.00	$700.00	$705.00	$710.00	$715.00	$720.00	$725.00
IWM	$296.00	$297.50	$300.00	$302.50	$305.00	$307.50	$310.00
XLF	$56.50	$57.50	$58.25	$60.00	$61.25	$62.50	—
AAPL	$334.25	$337.50	$340.00	$342.50	$345.00	$350.00	—
AMZN	$242.5	$245	$247.50	$250	$255	$260	—
XOM	$158.5	$160	$162.5	$165	$167.5	$170	—
TSLA	$325	$340	$350	$360	$374	—	—
JPM	$355	$360	$362.5	$365	$367.5	$370	$375
INTC	$105	$110	$120	$130	$140	—	—
EWY	$170	$172.5	$175	$177.5	$180	$185	$190
HOOD	$107.50	$110	$115	$118.5	$120	$125	$130
UNH	$430	$435	$440	$445	$450	$460	—

Bearish Setups — Below Trigger (July 27-31 2026)

Ticker	Below	T1	T2	T3	T4	T5	T6	T7
SPY	$735.00	$732.50	$730.00	$725.00	$720.00	$715.00	$712.50	—
QQQ	$682.50	$672.50	$665.00	$660.00	$650.00	$640.00	—	—
IWM	$290.00	$287.50	$285.00	$282.00	$280.00	$277.50	$275.00	$272.50
XLF	$55.00	$54.00	$53.50	$52.00	$51.50	—	—	—
AAPL	$319.00	$317.50	$315.00	$310.00	$300.00	$290.00	—	—
AMZN	$230	$227.5	$225	$220	$215	$210	—	—
XOM	$154	$152.5	$150	$147.5	$145	—	—	—
TSLA	$310	$300	$282.5	$265	$250	—	—	—
JPM	$349.75	$345	$340	$337.5	$335	$332.5	$330	—
INTC	$91	$85	$81	$75	$70	$65	—	—
EWY	$162.50	$160	$155	$150	$140	$133.5	—	—
HOOD	$92.5	$90	$87.50	$85	$80	$75	$70	—
UNH	$420	$416	$411	$407.5	$405	$400	$398	$300

ETF Dark Pool Flow

Broad market: $19.1B across five vehicles.

Dark pool flow in the major index ETFs totaled $19.06B for the week of Jul 20–24. SPY carried the load with $9.88B across 20 prints (13.3M shares, $742.85 average price) — 52% of all broad-market ETF flow by itself. Behind it: IVV $4.38B (6 prints), VOO $2.21B (6 prints), QQQ $1.93B (6 prints), and IWM $661.6M (5 prints).

Two single names outpaced everything except SPY. NVDA printed $4.50B across 26 blocks — the highest print count in the entire dataset — at an average of $207.87. AAPL followed at $4.44B on 15 prints, average $325.86. Both cleared IVV. When individual equities absorb more block volume than the second-largest S&P vehicle, that’s a concentration signal worth logging.

Sector SPDRs: $2.7B, and it wasn’t spread evenly.

Total flow across the 11 sector ETFs came to $2.70B — roughly one-seventh of broad-market volume. XLF led at $1.47B on 15 prints (26.2M shares, $56.12 average), taking 54% of all sector flow on its own. XLE was a distant second at $467.1M (6 prints), then XLC at $387.2M (3 prints). Those three accounted for 86% of sector activity.

The bottom of the table is the story. XLV registered zero qualifying prints, as did XLI and XLRE. XLB ($27.7M), XLU ($29.5M), and XLY ($52.5M) each cleared on a single print. Eight of eleven sector ETFs were effectively invisible in the block tape.

Price action ran a different script.

XLE led performance at +3.36%, tracking the crude move, followed by XLU +2.48% and XLI +1.81%. XLY was the week’s worst at −5.22%, taking most of its damage Thursday on Tesla’s post-earnings drop, with XLC −3.93% close behind on Alphabet. 8 of 11 sectors closed higher — index-level weakness was concentrated, not broad.

The flag: XLF.

XLF pulled the most sector dark pool flow of the week and closed at +0.09% — flat. Over $1.4B in block volume changed hands with essentially zero price displacement. Dark pool prints don’t disclose which side initiated, so this isn’t a call on positioning. But size moving through a name that doesn’t move is the kind of divergence that usually resolves later, not never. XLF goes on the watchlist.

*Data sourced from MobyTick. 695 total prints captured Jul 20–24, 2026.*

Educational

Four of last week’s thirteen callouts — IWM, NVDA, AAPL, and PFE — never triggered Above or Below. New readers often read that as a miss. It isn’t. It’s a signal in its own right, and it’s one of the more useful ones we get.

Here’s the mechanic. Every callout brackets a ticker with two levels drawn from where institutional size actually printed. The Above level sits over the dark pool band; the Below level sits under it. When price closes the week *between* them, the read was correct: size accumulated inside a range, and the range held.

Look at AAPL. The band was $313 to $335. The week’s actual travel was $319.35 to $334.37 — a full week of trading that never escaped either side. Dark pool prints in AAPL averaged $325.86 across 15 prints worth $4.44B, essentially dead-center in that band. Price didn’t break out because institutions weren’t pushing it out; they were transacting inside it.

IWM is the tighter example. Below sat at $290.00. The week’s low was $290.17 — seventeen cents of daylight. That’s not luck, that’s the band doing its job as a boundary. NVDA did the same thing on both ends: $202.28 to $214.39 inside a $197.50/$215.00 bracket, with $4.5B in prints averaging $207.87.

Why this matters practically:

A “no trigger” week is a range read, not a dead week. Consolidation inside a dark pool band means the level structure is still valid. Nothing invalidated it.

It informs position sizing. Breakout entries have no edge until a trigger actually fires. Waiting costs you nothing; guessing costs you the trigger’s whole purpose.

It sharpens the next callout. AAPL’s new band this week is $334.25 / $319.00 — nearly identical to last week’s realized high and low. IWM’s Above tightened from $298.00 to $296.00. When a range holds, the band compresses around it, and compression is what makes the eventual trigger meaningful.

A trigger that doesn’t fire told you exactly what it was supposed to: not yet.

*Data sourced from MobyTick.*

Dark Pool Charts — July 27-31 2026

AAPL

▲ ABOVE $334.25 · T1 $337.50 · T2 $340.00 · T3 $342.50 · T4 $345.00 · T5 $350.00

▼ BELOW $319.00 · T1 $317.50 · T2 $315.00 · T3 $310.00 · T4 $300.00 · T5 $290.00

AMZN

▲ ABOVE $242.5 · T1 $245 · T2 $247.50 · T3 $250 · T4 $255 · T5 $260

▼ BELOW $230 · T1 $227.5 · T2 $225 · T3 $220 · T4 $215 · T5 $210

EWY

▲ ABOVE $170 · T1 $172.5 · T2 $175 · T3 $177.5 · T4 $180 · T5 $185 · T6 $190

▼ BELOW $162.50 · T1 $160 · T2 $155 · T3 $150 · T4 $140 · T5 $133.5

HOOD

▲ ABOVE $107.50 · T1 $110 · T2 $115 · T3 $118.5 · T4 $120 · T5 $125 · T6 $130

▼ BELOW $92.5 · T1 $90 · T2 $87.50 · T3 $85 · T4 $80 · T5 $75 · T6 $70

INTC

▲ ABOVE $105 · T1 $110 · T2 $120 · T3 $130 · T4 $140

▼ BELOW $91 · T1 $85 · T2 $81 · T3 $75 · T4 $70 · T5 $65

IWM

▲ ABOVE $296.00 · T1 $297.50 · T2 $300.00 · T3 $302.50 · T4 $305.00 · T5 $307.50 · T6 $310.00

▼ BELOW $290.00 · T1 $287.50 · T2 $285.00 · T3 $282.00 · T4 $280.00 · T5 $277.50 · T6 $275.00 · T7 $272.50

JPM

▲ ABOVE $355 · T1 $360 · T2 $362.5 · T3 $365 · T4 $367.5 · T5 $370 · T6 $375

▼ BELOW $349.75 · T1 $345 · T2 $340 · T3 $337.5 · T4 $335 · T5 $332.5 · T6 $330

QQQ

▲ ABOVE $695.00 · T1 $700.00 · T2 $705.00 · T3 $710.00 · T4 $715.00 · T5 $720.00 · T6 $725.00

▼ BELOW $682.50 · T1 $672.50 · T2 $665.00 · T3 $660.00 · T4 $650.00 · T5 $640.00

SPY

▲ ABOVE $750.00 · T1 $755.00 · T2 $757.00 · T3 $760.00 · T4 $765.00 · T5 $760.00 · T6 $770.00

▼ BELOW $735.00 · T1 $732.50 · T2 $730.00 · T3 $725.00 · T4 $720.00 · T5 $715.00 · T6 $712.50

TSLA

▲ ABOVE $325 · T1 $340 · T2 $350 · T3 $360 · T4 $374

▼ BELOW $310 · T1 $300 · T2 $282.5 · T3 $265 · T4 $250

UNH

▲ ABOVE $430 · T1 $435 · T2 $440 · T3 $445 · T4 $450 · T5 $460

▼ BELOW $420 · T1 $416 · T2 $411 · T3 $407.5 · T4 $405 · T5 $400 · T6 $398 · T7 $300

XLF

▲ ABOVE $56.50 · T1 $57.50 · T2 $58.25 · T3 $60.00 · T4 $61.25 · T5 $62.50

▼ BELOW $55.00 · T1 $54.00 · T2 $53.50 · T3 $52.00 · T4 $51.50

XOM

▲ ABOVE $158.5 · T1 $160 · T2 $162.5 · T3 $165 · T4 $167.5 · T5 $170

▼ BELOW $154 · T1 $152.5 · T2 $150 · T3 $147.5 · T4 $145

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